Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

BACKGROUND: The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. METHODS: We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. RESULTS: In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance

Experimental evaluation of the relationship between lethal or non-lethal virulence and transmission success in malaria parasite infections

BACKGROUND: Evolutionary theory suggests that the selection pressure on parasites to maximize their transmission determines their optimal host exploitation strategies and thus their virulence. Establishing the adaptive basis to parasite life history traits has important consequences for predicting parasite responses to public health interventions. In this study we examine the extent to which malaria parasites conform to the predicted adaptive trade-off between transmission and virulence, as defined by mortality. The majority of natural infections, however, result in sub-lethal virulent effects (e.g. anaemia) and are often composed of many strains. Both sub-lethal effects and pathogen population structure have been theoretically shown to have important consequences for virulence evolution. Thus, we additionally examine the relationship between anaemia and transmission in single and mixed clone infections. RESULTS: Whereas there was a trade-off between transmission success and virulence as defined by host mortality, contradictory clone-specific patterns occurred when defining virulence by anaemia. A negative relationship between anaemia and transmission success was found for one of the parasite clones, whereas there was no relationship for the other. Notably the two parasite clones also differed in a transmission phenotype (gametocyte sex ratio) that has previously been shown to respond adaptively to a changing blood environment. In addition, as predicted by evolutionary theory, mixed infections resulted in increased anaemia. The increased anaemia was, however, not correlated with any discernable parasite trait (e.g. parasite density) or with increased transmission. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence supporting the hypothesis that there is an adaptive basis correlating virulence (as defined by host mortality) and transmission success in malaria parasites. This confirms the validity of applying evolutionary virulence theory to biomedical research and adds support to the prediction that partially effective vaccines may select for increasingly virulent malaria parasite strains. By contrast, there was no consistent correlation between transmission and sub-lethal anaemia, a more common outcome of malaria infection. However, overall, the data are not inconsistent with the recent proposal that sub-lethal effects may impose an upper limit on virulence. Moreover, clone specific differences in transmission phenotypes linked to anaemia do suggest that there is considerable adaptive potential relating anaemia and transmission that may lead to uncertain consequences following intervention strategies

Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission depends on vector life-history parameters and population dynamics, and particularly on the survival of adult Anopheles mosquitoes. These dynamics are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors, and temperature is a particularly important driver. Data currently exist on the influence of constant and fluctuating adult environmental temperature on adult Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival and on the effect of larval environmental temperature on larval survival, but none on how larval temperature affects adult life-history parameters. METHODS: Mosquito larvae and pupae were reared individually at different temperatures (23 ± 1°C, 27 ± 1°C, 31 ± 1°C, and 35 ± 1°C), 75 ± 5% relative humidity. Upon emergence into imagoes, individual adult females were either left at their larval temperature or placed at a different temperature within the range above. Survival was monitored every 24 hours and data were analysed using non-parametric and parametric methods. The Gompertz distribution fitted the survivorship data better than the gamma, Weibull, and exponential distributions overall and was adopted to describe mosquito mortality rates. RESULTS: Increasing environmental temperature during the larval stages decreased larval survival (p < 0.001). Increases of 4°C (from 23°C to 27°C, 27°C to 31°C, and 31°C to 35°C), 8°C (27°C to 35°C) and 12°C (23°C to 35°C) statistically significantly increased larval mortality (p < 0.001). Higher environmental temperature during the adult stages significantly lowered adult survival overall (p < 0.001), with increases of 4°C and 8°C significantly influencing survival (p < 0.001). Increasing the larval environment temperature also significantly increased adult mortality overall (p < 0.001): a 4°C increase (23°C to 27°C) did not significantly affect adult survival (p > 0.05), but an 8°C increase did (p < 0.05). The effect of a 4°C increase in larval temperature from 27°C to 31°C depended on the adult environmental temperature. The data also suggest that differences between the temperatures of the larval and adult environments affects adult mosquito survival. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental temperature affects Anopheles survival directly during the juvenile and adult stages, and indirectly, since temperature during larval development significantly influences adult survival. These results will help to parameterise more reliable mathematical models investigating the potential impact of temperature and global warming on malaria transmission. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0489-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

A Possible Mechanism for the Suppression of Plasmodium berghei Development in the Mosquito Anopheles gambiae by the Microsporidian Vavraia culicis

BACKGROUND: Microsporidian parasites of mosquitoes offer a possible way of controlling malaria, as they impede the development of Plasmodium parasites within the mosquito. The mechanism involved in this interference process is unknown. METHODOLOGY: We evaluated the possibility that larval infection by a microsporidian primes the immune system of adult mosquitoes in a way that enables a more effective anti-Plasmodium response. To do so, we infected 2-day old larvae of the mosquito Anopheles gambiae with one of 4 isolates of the microsporidian Vavraia culicis and reared one group as an uninfected control. Within each treatment, we fed half the adult females on a mix of P. berghei ookinetes and blood and inoculated the other half with a negatively charged CM-25 Sephadex bead to evaluate the mosquitoes' melanisation response. CONCLUSIONS: The microsporidian-infected mosquitoes were less likely to harbour oocysts (58.5% vs. 81.8%), harboured fewer oocysts (8.9 oocysts vs. 20.7 oocysts) if the malaria parasite did develop and melanised the Sephadex bead to a greater degree (73% vs. 35%) than the controls. While the isolates differed in the number of oocysts and in the melanisation response, the stimulation of the immune response was not correlated with either measure of malaria development. Nevertheless, the consistent difference between microsporidian-infected and -uninfected mosquitoes--more effective melanisation and less successful infection by malaria--suggests that microsporidians impede the development of malaria by priming the mosquito's immune system

Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of <it>Plasmodium berghei </it>through <it>Anopheles stephensi </it>and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of <it>Plasmodium </it>species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.</p

Maternal environment shapes the life history and susceptibility to malaria of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

BACKGROUND: It is becoming generally recognized that an individual's phenotype can be shaped not only by its own genotype and environmental experience, but also by its mother's environment and condition. Maternal environmental factors can influence mosquitoes' population dynamics and susceptibility to malaria, and therefore directly and indirectly the epidemiology of malaria. METHODS: In a full factorial experiment, the effects of two environmental stressors - food availability and infection with the microsporidian parasite Vavraia culicis - of female mosquitoes (Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto) on their offspring's development, survival and susceptibility to malaria were studied. RESULTS: The offspring of A. gambiae s.s. mothers infected with V. culicis developed into adults more slowly than those of uninfected mothers. This effect was exacerbated when mothers were reared on low food. Maternal food availability had no effect on the survival of their offspring up to emergence, and microsporidian infection decreased survival only slightly. Low food availability for mothers increased and V. culicis-infection of mothers decreased the likelihood that the offspring fed on malaria-infected blood harboured malaria parasites (but neither maternal treatment influenced their survival up to dissection). CONCLUSIONS: Resource availability and infection with V. culicis of A. gambiae s.s. mosquitoes not only acted as direct environmental stimuli for changes in the success of one generation, but could also lead to maternal effects. Maternal V. culicis infection could make offspring more resistant and less likely to transmit malaria, thus enhancing the efficacy of the microsporidian for the biological control of malaria

Genetic variation of male reproductive success in a laboratory population of Anopheles gambiae

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>For Anopheline mosquitoes, the vectors of human malaria, genetic variation in male reproductive success can have important consequences for any control strategy based on the release of transgenic or sterile males.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A quantitative genetics approach was used to test whether there was a genetic component to variation in male reproductive success in a laboratory population of <it>Anopheles gambiae</it>. Swarms of full sibling brothers were mated with a fixed number of females and their reproductive success was measured as (1) proportion of ovipositing females, (2) proportion of ovipositing females that produced larvae, (3) proportion of females that produced larvae, (4) number of eggs laid per female, (5) number of larvae per ovipositing female and (6) number of larvae per female.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of ovipositing females (trait 1) and the proportion of ovipositing females that produced larvae (trait 2) differed among full sib families, suggesting a genetic basis of mating success. In contrast, the other measures of male reproductive success showed little variation due to the full sib families, as their variation are probably mostly due to differences among females. While age at emergence and wing length of the males were also heritable, they were not associated with reproductive success. Larger females produced more eggs, but males did not prefer such partners.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The first study to quantify genetic variation for male reproductive success in <it>A. gambiae </it>found that while the initial stages of male reproduction (i.e. the proportion of ovipositing females and the proportion of ovipositing females that produced larvae) had a genetic basis, the overall reproductive success (i.e. the mean number of larvae per female) did not.</p

Comparison of male reproductive success in malaria-refractory and susceptible strains of Anopheles gambiae

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In female mosquitoes that transmit malaria, the benefits of being refractory to the <it>Plasmodium </it>parasite are balanced by the immunity costs in the absence of infection. Male mosquitoes, however, gain no advantage from being refractory to blood-transmitted parasites, so that any costs associated with an enhanced immune system in the males limit the evolution of female refractoriness and has practical implications for the release of transgenic males.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Aspects of the male cost of carrying <it>Plasmodium</it>-refractory genes were estimated by comparing the males' immune response and reproductive success among strains of <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>that had been selected for refractoriness or extreme susceptibility to the rodent malaria parasite, <it>Plasmodium yoelii nigeriensis</it>. The refractory males had a stronger melanization response than males from the susceptible line. Four traits were used as correlates of a male's reproductive success: the proportion of females that were inseminated by a fixed number of males in a cage within a fixed time frame, the proportion of females with motile sperm in their spermathecae, the proportion of ovipositing females, and the mean number of eggs per batch.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although there were significant differences among groups of males in sperm motility and oviposition success, these differences in male reproductive success were not associated with the refractory or susceptible male genotypes. Contrary to expectation, females mated to early emerging refractory males laid significantly more eggs per batch than females mated to later emerging susceptible males. Sperm motility and oviposition success were strongly correlated suggesting that variation in sperm motility influences female oviposition and ultimately male reproductive success.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An increased melanization response in male <it>A. gambiae </it>does not diminish male reproductive success under the experimental protocol used in this study. That refractory males induced ovipositing females to lay more eggs than susceptible males is an interesting result for any strategy considering the release of transgenic males. That sperm motility influences female oviposition is also important for the release of transgenic males.</p

Interrupting Malaria Transmission: Quantifying the Impact of Interventions in Regions of Low to Moderate Transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission

Modelling the impact of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria on selection pressure for drug resistance

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a promising intervention for malaria control, although there are concerns about its impact on drug resistance. METHODS: The key model inputs are age-specific values for a) baseline anti-malarial dosing rate, b) parasite prevalence, and c) proportion of those treated with anti-malarials (outside IPT) who are infected. These are used to estimate the immediate effect of IPT on the genetic coefficient of selection (s). The scenarios modelled were year round IPT to infants in rural southern Tanzania, and three doses at monthly intervals of seasonal IPT in Senegal. RESULTS: In the simulated Tanzanian setting, the model suggests a high selection pressure for drug resistance, but that IPTi would only increase this by a small amount (4.4%). The percent change in s is larger if parasites are more concentrated in infants, or if baseline drug dosing is less common or less specific. If children aged up to five years are included in the Tanzanian scenario then the predicted increase in s rises to 31%. The Senegalese seasonal IPT scenario, in children up to five years, results in a predicted increase in s of 16%. CONCLUSION: There is a risk that the useful life of drugs will be shortened if IPT is implemented over a wide childhood age range. On the other hand, IPT delivered only to infants is unlikely to appreciably shorten the useful life of the drug used